Article

Transformation: India's telecommunications through 2025

By:
Nittin Arora,
Ankush Ajmera
insight featured image

The telecommunications sector is not merely evolving but being reimagined through groundbreaking technological advancements and visionary strategies. Telecommunications in India presents an attractive narrative of growth and potential. With 1,203.69 million total telephone subscribers and an overall tele-density of 85.43%, the country has made significant progress. Urban areas boast a tele-density of 132.94% while rural regions have reached 59.05%. The internet subscriber base has expanded to 969 million, with a remarkable 42% originating from rural areas, signalling a profound digital democratization. The telecom market size is expected to reach $48.61 Billion by end of 2024 and grow to $76.16 billion by 2029.

Technological frontiers: Beyond traditional connectivity

5G: The digital transformation catalyst

The 5G rollout represents a quantum leap in technological capabilities. With 385,888 base stations deployed, India has executed one of the world's fastest 5G implementations. 5G technology in India is anticipated to generate a substantial economic impact, with estimated benefits of over $450 billion by 2040, primarily stemming from the creation of smart cities, modern infrastructure, and autonomous ecosystems.

The technology is not merely about speed, but about creating an interconnected ecosystem that supports advanced solutions like autonomous vehicles, smart city infrastructure, and sophisticated IoT networks. Telecom operators are leveraging Network Function Virtualization (NFV) and Software-Defined Networking (SDN) to create more flexible, efficient, and adaptive network architectures.

Emerging communication technologies

The telecommunications landscape is witnessing a convergence of groundbreaking technologies. Globally, Li-Fi adoption is gaining pace with companies like OLEDCOMM (France) and Signify (Netherlands) launching Li-Fi enabled solutions. Quantum communication networks have been launched in China, UK, and Japan while Google and IBM are developing quantum-safe encryption platforms. Blockchain technology is being explored by AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon for secure data sharing and identity verification. OpenRAN technology is gaining traction for 5G and future networks. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is being integrated into network optimization, customer service, and cybersecurity.

Edge computing has also emerged as a critical innovation, processing data closer to its source to reduce latency and enhance security. Edge computing has a projected market value of $43.4B by 2027 and is being adopted in IoT, gaming, and autonomous vehicles.

Broadcasting and digital content ecosystem

The digital content consumption landscape has undergone a radical transformation. OTT universe in India encompasses 547 million users, with 60% consuming content primarily on mobile devices. The average user subscribes to 2.5 platforms, indicating a diverse and fragmented content consumption pattern. The OTT video users in India is expected to increase by 28.89% between 2024 and 2029, reaching 634.31 Mn users.

Cloud-based broadcasting services are enabling media companies to produce, manage and distribute content with unprecedented flexibility. AI-driven content curation and personalized recommendation systems are enhancing user engagement, creating more targeted and immersive content experiences.

While urban areas lead in technology adoption and infrastructure, rural areas are offering accelerated growth potential. The increasing affordability of smartphones and low-cost data plans, combined with government initiatives, are key to bridging the urban-rural divide in telecommunications.

Programs like BharatNet, Digital India, and spectrum auctions for 5G aim to bridge the urban-rural digital divide. In 2011, there was a nearly 130% point gap in tele- density between urban and rural areas, which narrowed to 74 % in 2024, showing a greater penetration in rural areas.

Satellite and space technology: India's global leap

Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite networks are redefining global connectivity. These satellite constellations promise global internet coverage, particularly in remote and underserved areas. Private sector involvement in space exploration is accelerating, with companies developing advanced satellite technologies for earth observation, climate monitoring and global communication infrastructure.

By the next decade, the number of Low Earth Orbit satellites is forecast to reach or exceed 25,000 as a surge of investment in innovation makes them more commercially viable. The challenges in LEO projects including regulatory and legal challenges such as Orbital slot allocation, environmental concerns like rocket launch emission, atmospheric pollution or cybersecurity & privacy concerns require a multifaceted approach, including technological innovation, stronger regulations, international cooperation, and greater public engagement. Addressing these challenges is critical to ensuring that LEO projects can sustainably deliver their promised benefits.

Cybersecurity and digital infrastructure

The digital transformation has necessitated robust cybersecurity frameworks. Zero Trust Architecture, AI-driven threat detection and advanced encryption technologies are being deployed to protect increasingly complex digital ecosystems. Organizations are adopting hybrid and multi-cloud strategies to enhance flexibility and optimize operational costs.

Digital future

Sustainability has become a critical focus in digital infrastructure development. The goal is to create a green, efficient, and environmentally responsible digital ecosystems. To minimize carbon footprint, telcos are adopting energy-efficient technologies, e-waste management, and carbon offsetting. Energy consumption reduction and CO2 mitigation strategies are crucial for a green network. Key players have set ambitious renewable energy targets: Bharti Airtel (50% by 2025), Vi (100% by 2030), and Reliance Jio (50% of towers powered by renewable energy by 2025). Additionally, Indus Towers and Bharti Infratel aim to deploy 50,000 and 30,000 green towers, respectively, by 2025. Further, using energy-efficient upcycling techniques to update current configurations offers a chance to advance the goal of carbon-free emissions.

Strategic implications

The telecom sector stands as the fourth-largest Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) sector, directly employing 2.2 million people and indirectly supporting 1.8 million jobs. Government initiatives such as Production Linked Incentive Schemes and BharatNet Project are further promising to accelerate digital infrastructure development.

So far, 86% of gram panchayats (2,14,679 out of 2,50,000) have been connected through the BharatNet project and 6,92,082 Km of OFC has been laid. Additionally, 11,69,571 Fibre-To-The-Home (FTTH) connections are commissioned and 1,04,574 Wi-Fi hotspots are installed to ensure last-mile connectivity. On the other hand, India's mobile phone production value has overshot its target reaching Rs 4.8 lakh crores of production value by March 2024, against the target Rs. 4.4 lakh crores.

Future outlook: A distinctly Indian digital narrative

The Indian telecommunications sector is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by government initiatives and a vision to establish India as a global hub for telecom infrastructure and mobile device manufacturing. The Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme has attracted investments and boosted domestic production of telecom equipment and mobile phones. This initiative, along with programs such as Digital India, demonstrates the government's commitment to foster innovation in the sector. India's transition from a mobile phone importer to a significant exporter is a great outcome of these efforts. However, challenges in the sector also persist including low ARPU, high government levies and infrastructure gaps in rural areas. Concerted efforts by the government and industry to address these challenges and promote innovation will play a crucial role in shaping India's communications landscape and economic outlook.

This article first appeared in the Voice & Data magazine on 1 December 2024.